Testing of Randomness of Stock Price of Prime Commercial Bank Ltd.

The random walk theory is the occurrence of an event determined by a series of random movements - in other words, events that cannot be predicted.Applying the random walk theory to finance and stocks suggests that stock prices change randomly, making it impossible to predict stock prices. The random walk theory corresponds to the belief that markets are efficient, and that it is not possible to beat or predict the market because stock prices reflect all available information and the occurrence of new information is seemingly random as well. 

The random walk theory is in direct opposition to technical analysis, which contends that a stock's future price can be forecasted based on historical information through observing chart patterns and technical indicators. 

To test the random walk theory, the stock price of Prime Commercial Bank Limited is taken. The stock price from 18^st March 2013 to 29^th July 2013 is taken as a sample data. The 90 days trading data is analyzed to check the randomness of stock price of Prime Commercial Bank Ltd. The result are summarized below:

Runs Test
	Price_PCBL
Test Valuea	323.7444
Cases < Test Value	37
Cases >= Test Value	53
Total Cases	90
Number of Runs	20
Z	-5.383
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)	.000
a. Mean

The runs test can be used to decide if a data set is from a random process.A run is defined as a series of increasing values or a series of decreasing values. The number of increasing, or decreasing, values is the length of the run. In a random data set, the probability that the (I+1)th value is larger or smaller than the Ith value follows a binomial distribution, which forms the basis of the runs test.Run represents the no of times the stock price was changed from the mean value. 

The observation shows that, the mean stock value over the period of 90 trading days is Rs. 323.74 The stock value remains below the mean price for 37 days, and remaining 53 days, it is above the mean price. So, during the course of price change, the price changes 20 times around the mean value, which is called number of runs. From the table, the significance value is 0.00 hence the stock price of Prime Commercial Bank does not follow random pattern.

Autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It is the same as calculating the correlation between two different time series, except that the same time series is used twice - once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods.The term can also be referred to as "lagged correlation" or "serial correlation". From the data, the autocorrelation in stock price can be shown in following table.

Autocorrelations
Series:Price_PCBL
Lag	Autocorrelation	Std. Errora	Box-Ljung Statistic
			Value	df	Sig.b
1	.739	.104	50.836	1	.000
2	.561	.103	80.443	2	.000
3	.405	.103	96.080	3	.000
4	.273	.102	103.250	4	.000
5	.175	.101	106.232	5	.000
6	.130	.101	107.892	6	.000
7	.075	.100	108.451	7	.000
8	-.020	.100	108.492	8	.000
9	-.119	.099	109.929	9	.000
10	-.181	.098	113.306	10	.000
11	-.239	.098	119.269	11	.000
12	-.255	.097	126.178	12	.000
13	-.263	.096	133.629	13	.000
14	-.228	.096	139.274	14	.000
15	-.235	.095	145.367	15	.000
16	-.224	.095	150.969	16	.000
a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).
b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.

Autocorrelation Test

H_o = there is no autocorrelation i.e. the stock price are in random order.

H₁ = there exist autocorrelation and price does not follow random order.

From the autocorrelation table, p-value of (1-16) lag is 0.00 therefore null hypothesis is rejected. Hence the stock price of Prime Commercial Bank Ltd. doesn’t follow random pattern. So, the stock price of Prime Commercial Bank Ltd. can be predicted using past data.

Submitted By: Mr. Laxman Aryal

Apex College, Mnikkya

Story of Min Bahadur Gurung

Born to Succeed

Min Bahadur Gurung started his business at a time when supermarket shopping was only meant for the elite. His journey from a grocery store owner to the Managing Director of Bhat-Bhateni chain of supermarkets is full of joy, sorrow, dedication and struggle.

Bhat-Bhateni Group operates as a Private Limited Company of Nepal. Mr. Min Bahadur Gurung is the Chairman and also the Managing Director of Bhat-Bhateni Group, the largest retail chain of Supermarkets in Nepal. He is an extraordinarily dynamic, self-made businessman. His passion for history led him to explore ancient and recent civilizations and culture. He also serves as a Chairman of Kumari Bank Ltd, one of the renowned commercial bank of Nepal.

 Young Min Bahadur Gurung had strong faith in making history one day. His parents too had a dream that he will be a great personality of the country in due course of time. It was the major reason behind his parents’ decision to send him to a good school although his was a big 10-member family. Born after five sisters, he was raised as a pampered son in the family and provided with facilities that a son usually gets in the Nepali society. Two younger brothers were born after him. During his early schooling, Gurung was touched by the story about Madam Curie inventing bean size radium after melting 17 tons of stone. Megnath Lamsal, his teacher at high school, left a deep impression on him. The teacher’s lessons motivated him to do well in life and reach greatness one day. “I was very fond of Lamsal Sir and liked his classes much. I developed a strong belief in myself and was committed to work hard for success,” he recalls. 

Born in Dube, a village in Khotang district, Gurung had schooling up to SLC at different schools nearby. Unlike other young boys of his time, he was very energetic and hardworking. He enjoyed his schooldays even though he had to walk two hours daily to go to the school. Despite being a good student, Gurung failed in the SLC exams. It came as a shock for all the teachers, students and his own family who considered him as a bright student. He didn’t take it as a setback though and tried his best to overcome the failure by studying harder.

Reflecting back on his SLC failure, Gurung says that it actually made him the person he is today. He elaborates, “Because I failed my SLC exams, I did not pursue science stream later. Had I cleared SLC in my first attempt with flying colors, I would have other ideas about my future course of life and ultimately miss this fantastic business opportunity that I have today. 

Gurung started helping his family in farming after his intermediate degree. In Bhadra 2031 BS, he started planting rice, harvesting maize and other jobs required by the farming demands. During this period, he fell terribly sick and survived the ordeal somehow. Gurung’s father decided that enough was enough. Until now, he always insisted to keep his dearest son close to him but following the incident, he advised him to go to Kathmandu and study further.

Gurung had his first job as a record keeper who recorded attendance of daily wage laborers. He shares, “I was given Rs 400 by my father when I left for Kathmandu so I had to find a job anyhow to sustain.” He was soon hired in Nepal Bank Limited and was given a position in Nepalgunj. However, after two years, he managed to find a posting to Kathmandu and started pursuing a master’s degree shortly afterwards. He would attend college in the morning and work at the bank as his full time job.

A permanent job at the bank encouraged him to settle down in life. He married Sabitri Gurung, a girl from his own village who was pursuing her intermediate degree in Kathmandu. Meanwhile, he also started selling goods which built the foundation of his retail business. Gurung later turned his part time retail business as a full time profession when he realized the potential that the business offered.

Mr. and Mrs. Gurung with the help of one staff started a single shutter grocery shop of 120 sq. feet in 1984 (2041 B.S.) having initial investment of Rs. 35,000 with daily sales of Npr. 2000.00. Mr. Min B. Gurung had a successful banking career after completing of his university education (Master in Economics). He had the vision and courage to leave this job to lead Bhat-Bhateni in a full-time capacity following the expansion to a two floor (3,000 sq. ft.) supermarket in 1992 having investment of Npr. 2500000.00 with daily sales of Npr. 50000.00 and 11 dedicated staffs.

As fate would have it, his store caught fire in 2047 BS and caused him a financial loss of around a million rupees. Gurung says the fire at Bhatbhateni was a turning point for him and he learnt a lesson the hard way to take his business more seriously. Three years later, he established Bhatbhateni Departmental Store. “I am a different type of person who believes in growing plants on rock. It is not possible to stop at a failure when you have a great vision,” he says.

Even today, despite all the success, Gurung consults his wife as before while making business strategies. He remembers the time when he had to invest the same gold in his business that he had gifted to his wife earlier. She joined his business within a few days of delivering their first child Kamana. “It was quite amazing that she could join the store within a short period after the delivery of our first child,” he recalls. He rues the fact that he finds himself unable to give enough time to his family due to a busy schedule. It is hard to find him relaxing much but when he does so, he listening to music from stalwarts such as Narayan Gopal, Bachchu Kailash and Ani Choying Dolma.

Starting his grocery store with an investment of Rs 35,000 in a small single shutter, his business today is worth billions of rupees with five huge outlets in the Kathmandu valley and one in Pokhara. It was dream come true for him when the construction of his four huge supermarkets was completed last year. The construction of supermarkets in Kathmandu was overseen by his wife, son and daughter while he was busy taking care of the construction of the Pokhara outlet. As many as 50 people from his family circle are involved in the business, informs Gurung.

He says that support from the people and the facilities provided at the Bhatbhateni outlets have made it a successful supermarket chain. His stores registered overwhelming business during their respective openings. The Bhatbhateni outlet at Pokhara was opened not too long ago and the story there was no different either with thousands of people swarming the store for several days. “We had to cease either the upstairs or downstairs lifts every hour to manage the heavy crowd. There were people coming from Gorkha, Butwal, Syangja, Tanahu and Lamjung as well,” he recounts.

Gurung believes that failures pave paths towards new directions and trigger innovations. Bhatbhateni Supermarket employs 22,000 people currently and Gurung hopes that the group will have 50,000 employees in its ranks in 15 years time.

As part of its corporate social responsibility, the group helped construct an emergency ward having 72 beds at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital with a spending of Rs 100 million. Gurung has named the ward after his parents whom he holds in very high esteem. He has also been providing yearly scholarships to two MBBS students, especially the ones who originate from remote villages. “We will all die one day so it is important that we set apart a certain percentage of our earnings for social causes,” he reasons. Gurung thinks it is rather unfortunate that not many people spare a thought for the less privileged.

He plans to spend his retired life as a social worker. “I still believe in doing jobs which others haven’t tried before and hope to work for the well being of the society,” he says. He recommends people to believe in themselves to make it successful in life and be a part of the history.

Gurung dreams of making Bhatbhateni a multinational company and an international shopping hub as well as plans to spread his business all around the world. His passion of expanding Bhatbhateni’s business reflects strongly in his statement, “This has become a part of my body; it pains me if something goes wrong in the company.”

Today more than 30,000 people visit the stores daily with over 1500 combined store staff with the daily sales of Npr. 1.5 Crore (USD 187500.00), consistent merchandising and assured customer service is guaranteed.

Bhat-Bhateni has been a successful family business since the establishment in 1984 and has been the largest tax payer in the retail sector for the last five consecutive years in Nepal. . An ambitious expansion plan will see many new stores in Kathmandu and across the country over the next few years. Bhat-Bhateni story has only just started. It is Mr. Gurung's dream and ambition to make the Bhat-Bhateni Group a truly professional multinational corporation. Much of Bhat-Bhateni's success can be subscribed to the founders Mr. Min Bahadur Gurung and family, vision for continuous improvements and growth in order to support local development with current employment of over 1500 staffs, including several from families of political martyrs and indigenous people.

GURUNG’S TIPS FOR SUCCESS

 Honesty : Be honest because the lack of it casts shadow on other qualities

Hard Work : A great company needs great vision which, in turn, needs hard work

Patience : It helps manage every success and failure

Positive Thinking : Don’t start your business without it

Continuity : Continue your business under any circumstances whatsoever

Source: New Business Age and bhatbhateni website

Simple Test of Chilime Stock

Random Walk Theory

An investment theory which claims that market prices follow a random path up and down, without any influence by past price movements, making it impossible to predict with any accuracy which direction the market will move at any point. In other words, the theory claims that path a stock's price follows is a random walk that cannot be determined from historical price information, especially in the short term. Investors who believe in the random walk theory feel that it is impossible to outperform the market without taking on additional risk, and believe that neither fundamental analysis nor technical analysis have any validity. The random walk theory proclaims that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market, particularly in the short-term, because it is impossible to predict stock prices.

To test the random walk of the stock price of Chilime Hydro power, I have taken the recent 100 trading days price. The stock price from 24th February 2013 to 23rd July 2013 is taken as a sample data. The data is analyzed is analyzed using SPSS software. To determine whether the price of Chilime follow random path or not is tested using run test and auto correlation test. The results are summarized below:

1.      Runs Test
	Price_Chilime
Test Valuea	1152.0900
Cases < Test Value	66
Cases >= Test Value	34
Total Cases	100
Number of Runs	10
Z	-8.045
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)	.000
a. Mean

Run-test is used in order to examine the randomness behavior of stock price of Chilime Hydropower Company Ltd. Here the test value is 1152 and the price below test value is 66 and above the test value is 34. The number of runs is 10. Randomness behavior will be determined by the total number of runs. Too many or few number of runs indicates the existence of dependency The null hypothesis that states the random behavior of stock price will be rejected if the observed number of run is significantly different from the expected number of runs. Thus, to accept the null hypothesis on as much as 95% confidence level, the probability value that the event will be occurred should be greater than α (0.05). The hypothesis testing is stated as:

H₀= Price of Chilime’s Stock is follow random pattern

H₁= Price of Chilime’s Stock does not follow random pattern

Here the p-value is less than α, so null hypothesis is rejected and alternative hypothesis is accepted. Hence the price of Chilime’s Stock does not follow the random walk theory.

Autocorrelations
Series:Price_Chilime
Lag	Autocorrelation	Std. Errora	Box-Ljung Statistic
			Value	df	Sig.b
1	.849	.099	74.328	1	.000
2	.712	.098	127.019	2	.000
3	.539	.098	157.528	3	.000
4	.417	.097	175.978	4	.000
5	.327	.097	187.445	5	.000
6	.261	.096	194.824	6	.000
7	.190	.095	198.781	7	.000
8	.095	.095	199.777	8	.000
9	.038	.094	199.940	9	.000
10	-.006	.094	199.945	10	.000
11	-.029	.093	200.040	11	.000
12	-.039	.093	200.213	12	.000
13	-.041	.092	200.409	13	.000
14	-.070	.092	200.986	14	.000
15	-.083	.091	201.821	15	.000
16	-.081	.091	202.619	16	.000
a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).
b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.

Autocorrelation of a random process describes the correlation between values of the process at different times, as a function of the two times or of the time lag. Autocorrelation is used in order to examine the randomness behavior of stock price of Chilime Hydropower Company Ltd. To test weather autocorrelation exists or not, a hypothesis can be set as follow:

H_o = there does not exist autocorrelation or zero autocorrelation i.e. the stock price of Chilime’s follow random walk theory

H₁ = there exist autocorrelation or non-zero autocorrelation i.e. the stock price of Chilime’s does not follow random walk theory

The null hypothesis that states the random behavior of stock price and alternative hypothesis state the non-randomness of stock price of Chilime.  Thus, to accept the null hypothesis on as much as 95% confidence level, the probability value that the event ( in every lag 1-16) will be occurred should be greater than α (0.05). Here the p-value is less than α in every lag i.e. (lag 1-16), so null hypothesis is rejected and alternative hypothesis is accepted. Hence the stock price of Chilime does not follow random walk theory. Furthermore, this result of autocorrelation analysis has provided evidence of the weak form of market inefficiency.

Conclusion:

Using run test and autocorrelation test, we can conclude that the stock price of Chilime’s do not follow the random walk theory rather it can be predicated using past information of the company.

Submitted by: Mr. Bikram Thapa (03)

Manikkya, Apex College